Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2365 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2365 · RSW → PHL

departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at RSW that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2365 · RSW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?