Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2416 · ORD → EWR

departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 1:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2416 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?