Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2496 · DFW → PDX

departs 11:16 AM CT · arrives 1:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2496 · DFW → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?