Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

AA 2512 · TPA → DFW

departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.59 in

DFW (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2512 · TPA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?