Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2561 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2561 · RSW → ORD

departs 6:52 PM ET · arrives 9:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2561 · RSW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?