Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2616 · SAT → DFW

departs 4:57 AM CT · arrives 6:24 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2616 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?