Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2859 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2859 · DFW → BFL

departs 3:12 PM CT · arrives 4:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BFL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ BFL is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BFL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2859 · DFW → BFL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BFL?