AA 2920 · TPA → ORD

departs 1:53 PM ET · arrives 3:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.75 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2920 · TPA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?