Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2928 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2928 · SBA → PHX

departs 12:22 PM PT · arrives 2:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2928 · SBA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?