Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3118 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 3118 · MCO → DFW

departs 5:34 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.78 in

DFW (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3118 · MCO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?