Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 382 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 382 · LAX → BOS

departs 2:57 PM PT · arrives 11:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 382 · LAX → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?