Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 451 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 6 Today

AA 451 · CLE → PHX

departs 8:17 AM ET · arrives 9:24 AM MT

Your aircraft is N845NN (B738), coming in as AA 452 from PHX: landed 10:31 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 451 · CLE → PHX

Odds over time