AA 819 · ORD → JFK

took off 10:55 AM CT · expected to land 1:31 PM ET (scheduled 10:44 AM CT → 2:08 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 819 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?