Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 869 · DFW → MKE

departs 2:24 PM CT · arrives 4:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 869 · DFW → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?