Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 928 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 928 · PHX → SBA

departs 5:44 AM MT · arrives 7:38 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SBA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 928 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?