Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 947 · DFW → BZN

departs 1:29 PM CT · arrives 3:34 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 947 · DFW → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?