Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1038 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1038 · HNL → KOA

departs 8:00 AM HT · arrives 8:46 AM HT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1038 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?