Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1128 · HNL → KOA

departs 12:37 PM HT · arrives 1:36 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,933 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1128 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?