AS 1133 · HNL → LIH

departs 4:33 PM HT · arrives 5:26 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1133 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?