AS 123 · SEA → NRT

departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 3:32 PM JST

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 123 · SEA → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?