Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1330 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1330 · SEA → STS

departs 8:16 PM PT · arrives 10:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1330 · SEA → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?