Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1391 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1391 · PDX → LAX

departs 8:24 PM PT · arrives 10:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PDX that day

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1391 · PDX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?