Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1432 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1432 · SEA → ANC

departs 11:25 AM PT · arrives 2:15 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1432 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?