Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1444 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1444 · SEA → SJC

departs 8:57 PM PT · arrives 10:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1444 · SEA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?