Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1494 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1494 · SEA → PSP

departs 10:50 AM PT · arrives 1:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PSP?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ PSP is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1494 · SEA → PSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSP?