Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1500 · PDX → SMF

departs 5:59 PM PT · arrives 7:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1500 · PDX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?