Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1700 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 1700 · SEA → PDX

departs 1:46 PM PT · arrives 2:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1700 · SEA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?