Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 210 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 210 · FAI → SEA

departs 5:31 AM AKT · arrives 10:12 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at FAI that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from FAI are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4.33333 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 210 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?