AS 225 · PDX → MCI

departs 11:54 AM PT · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 225 · PDX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?