Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 228 · SEA → ANC

departs 8:49 PM PT · arrives 11:35 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3.53333 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 228 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?