Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2617 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 2617 · SBD → PDX

departs 9:10 PM PT · arrives 11:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PDX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2617 · SBD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?