Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 272 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 272 · FAI → ANC

departs 7:07 AM AKT · arrives 8:17 AM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at FAI that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 7am departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 272 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?