Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 285 · FAI → SEA

departs 8:20 AM AKT · arrives 12:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at FAI that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ 8am departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 285 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?