Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 296 · EWR → SEA

departs 6:14 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 296 · EWR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?