Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 317 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 317 · DEN → SEA

departs 8:40 AM MT · arrives 10:42 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 317 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?