AS 435 · FAI → ANC

departs 2:51 PM AKT · arrives 4:04 PM AKT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of snow forecast at FAI that day

↑ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

ANC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 435 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?