Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 485 · SEA → DFW

departs 2:32 PM PT · arrives 8:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 485 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?