Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 520 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 520 · SFO → LAX

departs 3:45 PM PT · arrives 5:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 520 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?