Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 621 · SEA → SAN

departs 12:29 PM PT · arrives 3:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 621 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?