Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 684 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 684 · PDX → DEN

departs 7:03 AM PT · arrives 10:36 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 684 · PDX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?