Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 688 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 688 · SEA → SFO

departs 11:29 AM PT · arrives 1:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 688 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?