Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 694 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 694 · PDX → SJC

departs 11:59 AM PT · arrives 1:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from PDX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 694 · PDX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?