Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 7004 · KTN → SIT

departs 4:44 PM AKDT · arrives 5:49 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at KTN that day

↑ 1.4 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into SIT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

KTN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.65 in

SIT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip1.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7004 · KTN → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?