AS 735 · KOA → SEA

took off 12:04 PM HT · expected to land 8:19 PM PT (scheduled 11:59 AM HT → 9:00 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 735 · KOA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?