Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 747SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AS 747 · PAE → PHX
departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 1:34 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 158h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%chance · ±6 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.