AS 753 · SFO → LAX

departs 1:23 PM PT · arrives 2:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 753 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?