Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 828 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 828 · SAN → HNL

departs 5:24 PM PT · arrives 8:32 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,933 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 828 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?