Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 902 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 902 · HNL → SEA

departs 11:10 AM HT · arrives 8:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 902 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?