Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9289 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 9289 · SMF → HNL

departs 12:26 AM PT · arrives 2:41 AM HT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9289 · SMF → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?