AS 92 · FAI → SEA

departs 1:15 AM AKT · arrives 6:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of snow forecast at FAI that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ 1am departures from FAI are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 92 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?